AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Betting Tips - £300
Updated: Feb 1
Location: Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula (rotation for the first 3 days), top 60 and ties make the cut to play at Pebble on Sunday.
The best scores are usually made at Monterey Peninsula. Spyglass is tree lined and has the most shelter on a windy day. Whilst Pebble isn’t long it’s a challenge if the wind gets up with small greens.
Pebble - Par 72, 6972 yards.
Spyglass Hill - Par 72, 7041 yards.
Monterey Peninsula - Par 71, 6957 yards.
Field: Matt Fitzpatrick is the only top 10 player this week, with Hovland (11) and Spieth (16) representing the top 20. So a very weak field lacking in the game’s biggest names, likely because the format doesn’t suit the so they’re having a week off before the $20m WM Phoenix Open next week.
Horses for courses: Spieth (68.83), Streelman (69.35), McNealy (69.60), Nick Taylor (69.74) and Stallings (69.77) top the stroke averages stats at the AT&T Pro Am in the last 7 years.
Previous Winners: Tom Hoge (2022), Nick Taylor (2020), Ted Potter Jr (2018) and Jordan Spieth (2017) tee it up this week as previous winners from the last 6 years. The odds of previous winners are as mixed as any event you’ll see on Tour with 75, 210, 850 and 10 showing that you can be a favourite or come from nowhere to win here.
The only solid gold rule I’m making this week is back Americans. From the last 57 winners 54 have been American and that’s good enough for me to swerve Fitzpatrick at 13, Hovland at 14 and Power at 26.
That doesn’t narrow it down that much for me, although I have wiped out both favourites.
With an event that is totally different to every other PGA Tour event I’m backing players that play consistently well with the pro am format, and from there trying to find some form amongst those. There is a fair amount of value when you look at the lack of top 20 players and the ability to win the event as an outsider over the years so I’m hopeful of a good week and I’ll be slinging some mud at the wall to hope something sticks and I can get into the black.
Jordan Spieth has won this event (2017) and probably should have won last year when he was matched at 1.33 on the back 9 on Sunday. 14.5 is great value for a player who contends often in this event and although I backed him in the Sony (for him to miss the cut) after a top 20 at the Sentry I think he’ll fancy making a statement this week to get 2023 off to a great start. £150 at 14.5 to return £2,025 puts a lot of eggs in an inconsistent basket but Spieth knows how to win and this event calls for a specialist so I’m happy with the value.
Scott Stallings 65, Trey Mullinax 85, and Lanto Griffin 140 all slot into the top 10 for lowest averages scores in this event and they’re great value so I’ve got £30 on SS, £23.50 on TM and £14.50 on LG all to return £2000.
Kevin Kisner 130 and Webb Simpson 160 are my two classy wildcards - huge odds for great players lacking form - can they turn it around this week? £15.50 on Kisner and £12.50 on Webb takes my staking total to £246.
To get to the round £300 I’m punting the remaining £54 on Denny McCarthy to return £2,592 - he averages 70.50 at the AT&T and I love backing players who can get really hot with the putter and he can putt with the best of them so hoping he can turn a very low key start to the year (placed 32 and 50 in the two events he’s played) into a great week.
This event should have been a £100 or £200 event but we're chasing a result and I love a value outsider bet so we're going for a max stake week again. I'll try and come back with a DraftKings column closer to Thursday as well as I fancy there could be some great value to had building a lineup this week.